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Abstract The Western Antarctic Peninsula is undergoing rapid environmental change. Regional warming is causing increased glacial meltwater discharge, but the ecological impact of this meltwater over large spatiotemporal scales is not well understood. Here, we leverage 20 years of remote sensing data, reanalysis products, and field observations to assess the effects of sea surface glacial meltwater on phytoplankton biomass and highlight its importance as a key environmental driver for this region’s productive ecosystem. We find a strong correlation between meltwater and phytoplankton chlorophyll-a across multiple time scales and datasets. We attribute this relationship to nutrient fertilization by glacial meltwater, with potential additional contribution from surface ocean stabilization associated with sea-ice presence. While high phytoplankton biomass typically follows prolonged winter sea-ice seasons and depends on the interplay between light and nutrient limitation, our results indicate that the positive effects of increased glacial meltwater on phytoplankton communities likely mitigate the negative impact of sea-ice loss in this region in recent years. Our findings underscore the critical need to consider glacial meltwater as a key ecological driver in polar coastal ecosystems. 

Abstract Iron is an essential micronutrient for phytoplankton and plays an integral role in the marine carbon cycle. The supply and bioavailability of iron are therefore important modulators of climate over glacial-interglacial cycles. Inputs of iron from the Antarctic continental shelf alleviate iron limitation in the Southern Ocean, driving hotspots of productivity. Glacial meltwater fluxes can deliver high volumes of particulate iron. Here, we show that glacier meltwater provides particles rich in iron(II) to the Antarctic shelf surface ocean. Particulate iron(II) is understood to be more bioavailable to phytoplankton, but less stable in oxic seawater, than iron(III). Using x-ray microscopy, we demonstrate co-occurrence of iron and organic carbon-rich phases, suggesting that organic carbon retards the oxidation of potentially-bioavailable iron(II) in oxic seawater. Accelerating meltwater fluxes may provide an increasingly important source of bioavailable iron(II)-rich particles to the Antarctic surface ocean, with implications for the Southern Ocean carbon pump and ecosystem productivity. 

Abstract. As a net source of nutrients fuelling global primary production, changes in Southern Ocean productivity are expected to influence biological carbon storage across the global ocean. Following a high-emission, low-mitigation pathway (SSP5-8.5), we show that primary productivity in the Antarctic zone of the Southern Ocean is predicted to increase by up to 30 % over the 21st century. The ecophysiological response of marine phytoplankton experiencing climate change will be a key determinant in understanding the impact of Southern Ocean productivity shifts on the carbon cycle. Yet, phytoplankton ecophysiology is poorly represented in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models, leading to substantial uncertainty in the representation of its role in carbon sequestration. Here we synthesise the existing spatial and temporal projections of Southern Ocean productivity from CMIP6 models, separated by phytoplankton functional type, and identify key processes where greater observational data coverage can help to improve future model performance. We find substantial variability between models in projections of light concentration (>15 000 (µE m−2 s−1)2) across much of the iron- and light-limited Antarctic zone. Projections of iron and light limitation of phytoplankton vary by up to 10 % across latitudinal zones, while the greatest increases in productivity occurs close to the coast. Temperature, pH and nutrients are less spatially variable – projections for 2090–2100 under SSP5-8.5 show zonally averaged changes of +1.6 °C and −0.45 pH units and Si* ([Si(OH)4]–[NO3-]) decreases by 8.5 µmol L−1. Diatoms and picophytoplankton and/or miscellaneous phytoplankton are equally responsible for driving productivity increases across the subantarctic and transitional zones, but picophytoplankton and miscellaneous phytoplankton increase at a greater rate than diatoms in the Antarctic zone. Despite the variability in productivity with different phytoplankton types, we show that the most complex models disagree on the ecological mechanisms behind these productivity changes. We propose that a sampling approach targeting the regions with the greatest rates of climate-driven change in ocean biogeochemistry and community assemblages would help to resolve the empirical principles underlying the phytoplankton community structure in the Southern Ocean. 

Abstract. Many glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula have retreated and accelerated in recent decades. Here we show that there has been a widespread, quasi-synchronous, and sustained increase in grounding line discharge from glaciers on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula since 2018. Overall, the west Antarctic Peninsula discharge trends increased by over a factor of 3, from 50 Mt yr−2 during 2017 to 2020 up to 160 Mt yr−2 in the years following, leading to a 7.4 % increase in grounding line discharge since 2017. The acceleration in discharge was concentrated at glaciers connected to deep, cross-shelf troughs hosting warm-ocean waters, and the acceleration occurred during a period of anomalously high subsurface water temperatures on the continental shelf. Given that many of the affected glaciers have retreated over the past several decades in response to ocean warming, thereby highlighting their sensitivity to ocean forcing, we argue that the recent period of anomalously warm water was likely a key driver of the observed acceleration. However, the acceleration also occurred during a time of anomalously high atmospheric temperatures and glacier surface runoff, which could have contributed to speed-up by directly increasing basal water pressure and, by invigorating near-glacier ocean circulation, increasing submarine melt rates. The spatial pattern of glacier acceleration therefore provides an indication of glaciers that are exposed to warm-ocean water at depth and/or have active surface-to-bed hydrological connections; however, many stages in the chain of events leading to glacier acceleration, and how that response is affected by glacier-specific factors, remain insufficiently understood. Both atmospheric and ocean temperatures in this region and its surroundings are likely to increase further in the coming decades; therefore, there is a pressing need to improve our understanding of recent changes in Antarctic Peninsula glacier dynamics in response atmospheric and oceanic changes in order to improve projections of their behaviour over the coming century. 

Abstract Ice dynamic change is the primary cause of mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, thus it is important to understand the processes driving ice-ocean interactions and the timescale on which major change can occur. Here we use satellite observations to measure a rapid increase in speed and collapse of the ice shelf fronting Cadman Glacier in the absence of surface meltwater ponding. Between November 2018 and December 2019 ice speed increased by 94 ± 4% (1.47 ± 0.6 km/yr), ice discharge increased by 0.52 ± 0.21 Gt/yr, and the calving front retreated by 8 km with dynamic thinning on grounded ice of 20.1 ± 2.6 m/yr. This change was concurrent with a positive temperature anomaly in the upper ocean, where a 400 m deep channel allowed warm water to reach Cadman Glacier driving the dynamic activation, while neighbouring Funk and Lever Glaciers were protected by bathymetric sills across their fjords. Our results show that forcing by warm ocean water can cause the rapid onset of dynamic imbalance and increased ice discharge from glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula, highlighting the region’s sensitivity to future climate variability. 

Glacial meltwater is an important environmental variable for ecosystem dynamics along the biologically productive Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) shelf. This region is experiencing rapid change, including increasing glacial meltwater discharge associated with the melting of land ice. To better understand the WAP environment and aid ecosystem forecasting, additional methods are needed for monitoring and quantifying glacial meltwater for this remote, sparsely sampled location. Prior studies showed that sea surface glacial meltwater (SSGM) has unique optical characteristics which may allow remote sensing detection via ocean color data. In this study, we develop a first-generation model for quantifying SSGM that can be applied to both spaceborne (MODIS-Aqua) and airborne (PRISM) ocean color platforms. In addition, the model was prepared and verified with one of the more comprehensivein-situstable oxygen isotope datasets compiled for the WAP region. The SSGM model appears robust and provides accurate predictions of the fractional contribution of glacial meltwater to seawater when compared within-situdata (r= 0.82, median absolute percent difference = 6.38%, median bias = −0.04), thus offering an additional novel method for quantifying and studying glacial meltwater in the WAP region. 

We contend that ocean turbulent fluxes should be included in the list of Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) created by the Global Ocean Observing System. This list aims to identify variables that are essential to observe to inform policy and maintain a healthy and resilient ocean. Diapycnal turbulent fluxes quantify the rates of exchange of tracers (such as temperature, salinity, density or nutrients, all of which are already EOVs) across a density layer. Measuring them is necessary to close the tracer concentration budgets of these quantities. Measuring turbulent fluxes of buoyancy (J_b), heat (J_q), salinity (J_S) or any other tracer requires either synchronous microscale (a few centimeters) measurements of both the vector velocity and the scalar (e.g., temperature) to produce time series of the highly correlated perturbations of the two variables, or microscale measurements of turbulent dissipation rates of kinetic energy (ϵ) and of thermal/salinity/tracer variance (χ), from which fluxes can be derived. Unlike isopycnal turbulent fluxes, which are dominated by the mesoscale (tens of kilometers), microscale diapycnal fluxes cannot be derived as the product of existing EOVs, but rather require observations at the appropriate scales. The instrumentation, standardization of measurement practices, and data coordination of turbulence observations have advanced greatly in the past decade and are becoming increasingly robust. With more routine measurements, we can begin to unravel the relationships between physical mixing processes and ecosystem health. In addition to laying out the scientific relevance of the turbulent diapycnal fluxes, this review also compiles the current developments steering the community toward such routine measurements, strengthening the case for registering the turbulent diapycnal fluxes as an pilot Essential Ocean Variable. 

Dense, cold waters formed on Antarctic continental shelves descend along the Antarctic continental margin, where they mix with other Southern Ocean waters to form Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). AABW then spreads into the deepest parts of all major ocean basins, isolating heat and carbon from the atmosphere for centuries. Despite AABW’s key role in regulating Earth’s climate on long time scales and in recording Southern Ocean conditions, AABW remains poorly observed. This lack of observational data is mostly due to two factors. First, AABW originates on the Antarctic continental shelf and slope wherein situmeasurements are limited and ocean observations by satellites are hampered by persistent sea ice cover and long periods of darkness in winter. Second, north of the Antarctic continental slope, AABW is found below approximately 2 km depth, wherein situobservations are also scarce and satellites cannot provide direct measurements. Here, we review progress made during the past decades in observing AABW. We describe 1) long-term monitoring obtained by moorings, by ship-based surveys, and beneath ice shelves through bore holes; 2) the recent development of autonomous observing tools in coastal Antarctic and deep ocean systems; and 3) alternative approaches including data assimilation models and satellite-derived proxies. The variety of approaches is beginning to transform our understanding of AABW, including its formation processes, temporal variability, and contribution to the lower limb of the global ocean meridional overturning circulation. In particular, these observations highlight the key role played by winds, sea ice, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet in AABW-related processes. We conclude by discussing future avenues for observing and understanding AABW, impressing the need for a sustained and coordinated observing system. 

Abstract Since the middle of the past century, the Western Antarctic Peninsula has warmed rapidly with a significant loss of sea ice but the impacts on plankton biodiversity and carbon cycling remain an open question. Here, using a 5-year dataset of eukaryotic plankton DNA metabarcoding, we assess changes in biodiversity and net community production in this region. Our results show that sea-ice extent is a dominant factor influencing eukaryotic plankton community composition, biodiversity, and net community production. Species richness and evenness decline with an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). In regions with low SST and shallow mixed layers, the community was dominated by a diverse assemblage of diatoms and dinoflagellates. Conversely, less diverse plankton assemblages were observed in waters with higher SST and/or deep mixed layers when sea ice extent was lower. A genetic programming machine-learning model explained up to 80% of the net community production variability at the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Among the biological explanatory variables, the sea-ice environment associated plankton assemblage is the best predictor of net community production. We conclude that eukaryotic plankton diversity and carbon cycling at the Western Antarctic Peninsula are strongly linked to sea-ice conditions.